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This page contains a single entry from the blog posted on December 16, 2008 6:53 PM. The previous post in this blog was In Portland, horrible ideas never die. The next post in this blog is We interrupt this blog for a live storm update. Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

'Dog days begin to wane

Snow is flying and Christmas is near, but the big daddies of pro football keep pounding each other. There are two weekends to go in the regular season, and then it's on to the playoffs.

In the underdog pool in which I play, last week I found no inspiration and lamely chose Oakland over New England -- a pick that proved gruesomely wrong in about the first five minutes of the game. I don't feel too bad, because the only other selections that looked good to me were Kansas City and San Francisco, and they both bit it as well. Meanwhile, however, the two people with whom I was jockeying for the lead in the pool correctly picked Cincinnati over the Redskins, and so they've pulled quite a bit ahead of me in first and second place. (The two of them divine their choices every week by reading the entrails of freshly killed mammals, I swear.)

Anyway, I'm now 10½ points behind first place and 8 points behind second, but still a comfortable 15 points ahead of the fourth-place player. Now more than ever, I need a win, and for the evil powers ahead of me to fail.

So help me out, readers: Who in this pack of underdogs (in caps) can win its game outright (no fair using the spread) this week? If I pick correctly, I get the number of points specified on the left:

8 ARIZONA at New England
7.5 OAKLAND vs. Houston
7 DETROIT vs. New Orleans
7 BUFFALO at Denver
6.5 JACKSONVILLE vs. Indianapolis (Thursday)
5.5 ST. LOUIS vs. San Francisco
5 SEATTLE vs. NY Jets
4.5 BALTIMORE at Dallas (Saturday)
4.5 WASHINGTON vs. Philadelphia
4.5 GREEN BAY at Chicago
4 KANSAS CITY vs. Miami
3.5 ATLANTA at Minnesota
3 SAN DIEGO at Tampa Bay
3 CAROLINA at NY Giants
1.5 CINCINNATI at Cleveland
1.5 TENNESSEE vs. Pittsburgh

To my untrained eyes, Jacksonville, St. Louis, and Atlanta have appeal, but with all sorts of playoff intrigue going on, it's hard to tell. Speak up right away if you're with me on Jacksonville -- that one's Thursday night. If you think the Ravens will do what the Giants couldn't and win in Dallas, you'll need to so advise me before kickoff on Saturday night.

The pool will continue through the playoffs, but the point prizes will likely be smaller, and with fewer games to pick, there aren't likely to be many shifts in the standings at that point. This is it -- carpe diem!

Comments (14)

ATL is a nice safe pick, but AZ is your choice if you have some "big ones"

mmmmmmm..... I think .... 7 BUFFALO at Denver. Buffalo of course.

Carolina will get its defining win of the season (the equivalent of the Giants' win over NE in the regular season last year).

Ravens over the Cowboys. It looked like Romo tweaked his low back last Sunday. This game will resemble the Pitt-Dallas game a week ago.

Washington over Philly. I know, conventional wisdom says that Philly hits its stride this time of year. But I say that Andy Reid and the Birds falter and he (and maybe McNabb) are gone next year. This game starts Philly's tailspin into oblivion.

Who am I, you may ask, to make such magical picks? I am nothin' but right.

The Lions are going to win one of their last two games. Home against the Saints, who'll be playing out the string, seems very reachable to me.

I would go with Buffalo. They have a good shot and you need to throw it down the field.

A little game theory question:

Does fourth place pay any $$.

If not then you know that the guy behind you is going to pick a longshot b/c he has to win big two weeks in a row to catch you.

If it does pay then he's probably going to play it safe (depending on his lead over number 5).

If you know that he has to pick a longshot, then you know he'll probably pick AZ (most points and you can make a better argument that they have the tools to win than OAK or DET).

If you believe that he's going to pick AZ then you ought to as well (you'll be guaranteed third and you'll have a realistic shot at moving up).

If you don't think he's going to make the longshot AZ bet, then I'd go with Baltimore.

Does fourth place pay any $$.

Fourth does pay. I'm currently 1.5 points out of fourth and 16.5 behind The Professor. It's not a bad place. Last year I was in a similar spot and had a legit shot at taking the whole thing down on the final weekend. It's definitely time though to start taking some healthy swings.

Go Cardinals!

The Jets are going to choke in Seattle. Pick the Hawks, QB Seneca Wallace has been playing well.

I like the Seahawks to upset the Jets as well. Holmgren will get inside Favre's head. And the Seahawks offense has been showing a lot of promise lately. I don't think Indy is likely to get upset at this point. They've hit their stride just in time for a decent playoff run. And the tealeaves say Dallas is going to lose to Baltimore because 1) Romo has a bad back, 2) Barber is hurt, and 3) the team as a whole is just ready to fall apart. The Cinci upset of New Orleans is very intriguing, because no team has had a winless season, right? And what motivation does New Orleans have right now?

I also recommend Buffalo over Denver. You might as well go for a big win, and Denver is so unpredictable that they could easily get blown out. They could also win by 30, so its a gamble. I just don't see the Cardinals getting it done in New England.

Mr. Snethen is "table talking" and attempting to goad Mr. Bog into making wild and reckless choices. Beware this man!

I would go with Buffalo over Denver. They only lost to the Jets on a fumble at the end of the game last week. And the Ravens over the Cowboys. I was really impressed with the Ravens defense in their last game. They are truly relentless.

Detroit. I, unfortunately, believe that even the Lions can't go 0-16. I hope I'm wrong.

Forgot to add: the caution against picking Detroit, is that NO plays on turf as well, and seems to fair well on it.

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In Vino Veritas

Quinta das Amoras, Vinho Tinto 2009
Mauro Molino, Barbera d'Alba 2009
Garda Chiaretto Rose
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Vineyard 10 White
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Pinot Gris, Columbia Valley 2009
L'Hortus, Rose de Saignee 2010
Maculan, Pino & Toi 2008
McKinley Springs, Bombing Range Red 2008
Trader Joe's Pinot Gris 2009
Montes Alpha, Cabernet 2007
Gran Sasso, Sangiovese, Terre di Chieti 2009
Garda, Classico Chiaretto Rose
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1999
Picos del Montgo, Tempranillo 2008
Chateau de Montmirail, Vacqueyras 2008
La Granja 360, Syrah 2009
Montgras, Carmenere Reserva 2009
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Cabernet 2008
Kirkland, Pinot Grigio 2010
Trader Joe's Coastal Syrah 2009
Columbia Crest, Horse Heaven Hills Merlot 2008
Trader Joe's Coastal Chardonnay 2009
Vieux Papes Red
Domaine de l'Aujardiere, Chardonnay 2009
Santa Rita, Cabernet, Medalla Real 2007
Penfold's, Koonunga Hill Shiraz Cabernet 2008
Guild, Red, Lot #02 2008
Dievole, Dievolino Sangiovese 2008
Laforet, Burgogne Chardonnay 2009
Columbia Winery, Merlot 2007
Bonterra, Cabernet 2008
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2009
Maquis Lien 2006
Scott Paul, Pinot Noir, Le Paulee 2007
Cameron, Chardonnay
B.R. Cohn, Cabernet, Silver Label 2006
Graffigna, Cabernet 2005
Palo Alto, Reserve Red 2008
Menguante, Garnacha 2008
Lange, Pinot Gris 2009
Felsina Berardenga, Vin Santo 1997
Anne Amie, Pinot Gris 2009
McKinley Springs, Bombing Ramge Red 2007
Vieux Papes Red
Dionysius Chardonnay 2009
Haden Fig, Pinot Noir 2009
Vega Montan, Mencia 2008
Chateau la Vernede, Coteaux du Languedoc 2007
Mount Defiance, Hellfire (White) 2008
Root: 1, Cabernet 2008
Columbia Crest, Two Vines Pinot Grigio 2009
Columbia Crest, Two Vines, Vineyard 10 White, 2008
Columbia Crest, Two Vines, Vineyard 10 Rose, 2007
Abacela, Grenache Rose 2009
Avia Cabernet 2004
Lemelson Pinot Noir, Thea's Selection 2007
Chateau de la Roulerie, Rose d'Anjou 2009
Casal Garcia, Vinho Verde Rose
La Ferme Julien, Rose 2008
Cana's Feast, Bricco Red, 2006
Hogue, Genesis Merlot, 2008
Owen Roe, Sharecropper's Cabernet, 2008
Kim Crawford, Unoaked Chardonnay 2008
J. Scott, Pinot Noir 2008
Edmunds St. John, White, Heart of Gold 2008
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2006
Stevenot, Cabernet, Sierra Foothills, "Stanford" 2000
Portuga, Vinho Rose 2009
Taylor Fladgate, First Estate Reserve Porto
Franciscan, Cabernet, Napa 2006
Chaparral de Vega Sindoa, Garnacha 2008
Quinta da Aveleda, Vinho Verde 2008
St. Francis, Chardonnay Sonoma 2008
E. Guigal, Cotes du Rhone Blanc, 2007
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly, Gamay Noir 2008
St. Innocent, Pinot Noir 2006
Jigsaw, Pinot Noir 2007
Chateau Ste. Michelle, Merlot, Indian Wells 2007
Charles Shaw, Chardonnay 2008
Edmunds St. John, Bone-Jolly, Gamay Rosé 2009
Cameron, Willamette Valley Chardonnay
Il Valore, Sangiovese, Giovane, Puglia 2008
Duck Pond, Chardonnay, Wahluke Slope 2007
Kim Crawford, Marlborough Pinot Noir 2008
Domaine du Pesquier, Cotes du Rhone 2005
Cantina Zaccagnini, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2006
Domaine Matrot, Chardonnay, Bourgogne 2007
David Hill, Oregon Sparkling Wine, Brut
Chandler Reach, Monte Regalo 2006
Elk Cove, Pinot Gris 2008
Kirkland, Columbia Valley Merlot 2008
D'Aragon, Old Vine Garnacha 2008
Columbia Crest, Walter Clore Private Reserve 2005
Pavin & Riley, Merlot 2006
David Hill, Estate Pinot Noir, Barrel Select 2006
Castle Rock, Paso Robles Cabernet 2006
Magnificent, Cabernet, Steak House 2008
Conundrum 2008
Beaulieu, Cabernet, Rutherford 1998
Saint Cosme, Cotes-du-Rhone 2007
La Granja, Tempranillo 360, 2008
Santa Rita, Mendalla Real Cabernet 2006
Columbia Crest, Grand Estates Merlot 2006
Andezon, Cotes-du-Rhone 2007
Collegiata, Montepulciano d'Abruzzo
Troon, Druid's Fluid 2008
La Granja, Tempranillo 2008
Monte Antico, Toscana 2006
Vieux Papes, Blanc de Blancs

The Occasional Book

Harper Lee - To Kill a Mockingbird
Emma McLaughlin & Nicola Kraus - The Nanny Diaries
Brian Selznick - The Invention of Hugo Cabret
Sharon Creech - Walk Two Moons
Keith Richards - Life
F. Sionil Jose - Dusk
Natalie Babbitt - Tuck Everlasting
Justin Halpern - S#*t My Dad Says
Mark Herrmann - The Curmudgeon's Guide to Practicing Law
Barry Glassner - The Gospel of Food
Phil Stanford - The Peyton-Allan Files
Jesse Katz - The Opposite Field
Evelyn Waugh - Brideshead Revisited
J.K. Rowling - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone
David Sedaris - Holidays on Ice
Donald Miller - A Million Miles in a Thousand Years
Mitch Albom - Have a Little Faith
C.S. Lewis - The Magician's Nephew
F. Scott Fitzgerald - The Great Gatsby
William Shakespeare - A Midsummer Night's Dream
Ivan Doig - Bucking the Sun
Penda Diakité - I Lost My Tooth in Africa
Grace Lin - The Year of the Rat
Oscar Hijuelos - Mr. Ives' Christmas
Madeline L'Engle - A Wrinkle in Time
Steven Hart - The Last Three Miles
David Sedaris - Me Talk Pretty One Day
Karen Armstrong - The Spiral Staircase
Charles Larson - The Portland Murders
Adrian Wojnarowski - The Miracle of St. Anthony
William H. Colby - Long Goodbye
Steven D. Stark - Meet the Beatles
Phil Stanford - Portland Confidential
Rick Moody - Garden State
Jonathan Schwartz - All in Good Time
David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim
Anthony Holden - Big Deal
Robert J. Spitzer - The Spirit of Leadership
James McManus - Positively Fifth Street
Jeff Noon - Vurt

Road Work

Miles run year to date: 26
At this date last year: 15
Total run in 2011: 113
In 2010: 125
In 2009: 67
In 2008: 28
In 2007: 113
In 2006: 100
In 2005: 149
In 2004: 204
In 2003: 269
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